Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 January 2025 at 14:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Fateh (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.30 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.50 for Al Wehda Club. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Al Wehda Club in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Fateh, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Al Wehda Club — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fateh and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Wehda Club — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al Wehda Club 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al Wehda Club 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.68 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.944 / defence 1.164 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.849 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.344. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al-Fateh games / 47 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wehda Club 3.33. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jan 2025, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 1.68 / Al Wehda Club 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.944 / def 1.164 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.849 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Wehda Club xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 14:45 on Thursday 9 January 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 46% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.85x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.19
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.01
1.33
Al Wehda Club xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.33 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 13W 12D 22L from 47 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 26L across 47 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.96 for Al Wehda Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 6D 9L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 4W 3D 15L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.32 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 12W 9D 26L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.23 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Wehda Club have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 73%, Al Wehda Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Fateh) and 54% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Wehda Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al-Fateh's games and 50% of Al Wehda Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 54% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.68 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 64%, Al Wehda Club 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.09 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.