Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Shabab travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 October 2026, 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.00 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al Shabab and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 57% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 45% | Al Shabab 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.91 xG and Al Shabab 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.697 / defence 1.144 | Al Shabab attack 0.793 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Al-Fateh games / 42 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 23% | Draw 37% | Al Shabab 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.35 | Draw 2.70 | Al Shabab 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Shabab 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 23% | Draw 37% | Al Shabab 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fateh 0.91 / Al Shabab 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.697 / def 1.144 | Al Shabab attack 0.793 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al Shabab xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 14:45 on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 23% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 4W | Draws 4 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.70) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
23%
4.38
37%
2.73
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.17
1.26
Al Shabab xG
4.38
23%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.26 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 10W 13D 19L from 42 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 18L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.02 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 2W 9D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.26 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 19L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 55%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 30% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Shabab in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 50% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 30% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.