Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to to face Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Al-Faisaly FC, 0.70 for Al Taawon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Faisaly FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al Taawon 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al Taawon 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.90 xG and Al Taawon 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al Taawon attack 0.993 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 34% | Al Taawon 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Al Taawon 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al Taawon 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 23% | Draw 34% | Al Taawon 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.90 / Al Taawon 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al Taawon attack 0.993 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Taawon xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 23% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.61) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.99x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
23%
4.44
34%
2.94
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.32
Al Taawon xG
4.44
23%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.32 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 3D 3L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon's form line: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 0.50 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taawon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2022, when Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 33%, Al Taawon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Faisaly FC and 67% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 67% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.