Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Faisaly FC face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0W 2D 1L at — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al-Faisaly FC's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 2–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.55 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.510 / defence 0.678. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.678 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.510 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 7% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 14.29 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 7% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.55 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.510 / def 0.678 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
39%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 7% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 70% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.61x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.51x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-3 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
7%
13.93
23%
4.36
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
0 – 3
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.56
2.01
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
13.93
7%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
13%
7.45
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
1%
103.74
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 2.01 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 3D 3L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.50 PPG overall record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.83 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 33% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Faisaly FC and 67% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 67%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.