Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 14:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Faisaly FC at 0.60 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Hazm 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Hazm 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Hazm 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.36 xG and Al-Hazm 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.028 | Al-Hazm attack 0.536 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.197. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Al-Faisaly FC games / 22 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 30% | Al-Hazm 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Hazm 5.88. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 60% | Al-Hazm 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 30% | Al-Hazm 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.36 / Al-Hazm 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.978 / def 1.028 | Al-Hazm attack 0.536 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Al-Hazm xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:40 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.39
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.66
Al-Hazm xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.66 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 4W 9D 9L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 14L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Faisaly FC on 0.95 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Faisaly FC have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 1D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Faisaly FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 64%, Al-Hazm 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 27% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 27% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 27% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.36 xG and Al-Hazm 0.66 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Al-Hazm attack 0.54 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 53% | Draw 30% | Al-Hazm 17%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Hazm 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 0.95 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Faisaly FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.