Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Ettifaq take on Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 30 September 2021 at 18:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Pro League matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 1.33 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 100% and Al-Fateh 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 83% | Al-Fateh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.052 / defence 1.198 | Al-Fateh attack 0.826 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.274. Data: 6 Al-Ettifaq games / 6 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fateh 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 100% | Al-Fateh 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 18:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.29 / Al-Fateh 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.052 / def 1.198 | Al-Fateh attack 0.826 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:20 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
34%
2.91
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.55
1.26
Al-Fateh xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.26 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 3D 2L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Al-Ettifaq's scoring rate against Al-Fateh's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ettifaq at 100%, Al-Fateh at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Al-Ettifaq) and 0% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 0% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh finished level at 0-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.26 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Al-Fateh attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 32%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 83%, Al-Fateh 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.