Al-Ettifaq vs Abha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Abha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Abha at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Abha 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Abha trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 46% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.53 xG and Abha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.872 / defence 1.281 | Abha attack 0.647 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Data: 46 Al-Ettifaq games / 11 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Abha 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Abha 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Abha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.53 / Abha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.872 / def 1.281 | Abha attack 0.647 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Abha xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Abha a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 1 | Abha 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Abha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.87x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.34
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.75
1.22
Abha xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.22 for Abha, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 8L across 11 games — 0.27 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.45 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Abha's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Abha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (0.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 0.40 PPG; Abha away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Abha in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Abha runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 60%, Abha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ettifaq and 60% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 40% of games; Abha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 60% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 60% of Abha's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Abha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.