Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al Shabab travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al Shabab and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Shabab trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al Shabab 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al Shabab 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.57 xG and Al Shabab 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.200 / defence 0.978 | Al Shabab attack 0.951 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.444. Data: 38 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 38 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al Shabab 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.57 / Al Shabab 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.200 / def 0.978 | Al Shabab attack 0.951 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al Shabab xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 43% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.20) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.07
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.91
1.34
Al Shabab xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.34 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 23W 6D 9L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab's form line: 19W 7D 12L from 38 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.97 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 8W 5D 5L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.79 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 23W 6D 9L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.06 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al Shabab 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 61% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Shabab in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 61% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 61% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.57 xG and Al Shabab 1.34 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Al Shabab attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 33%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al Shabab 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 PPG, Al Shabab 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.