Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Thursday 13 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
Al-Nassr (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.70 vs 2.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al-Nassr 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Al-Nassr 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 xG and Al-Nassr 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.236 / defence 0.755 | Al-Nassr attack 1.281 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.337. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 53 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 3.33. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Al-Nassr lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ahli Jeddah carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 / Al-Nassr 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.236 / def 0.755 | Al-Nassr attack 1.281 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 13 February 2025 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.24) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.28x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.16
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.96
1.29
Al-Nassr xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.29 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 53 games, going 31W 10D 12L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.32 PPG from 53 outings (38W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 2.32 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 18W 5D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.42 points per game from 26 outings (20W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.64 scored and 1.11 conceded. Al-Nassr's attacking output running into Al-Ahli Jeddah's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 68%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 10D 12L in their last 53 games (1.94 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 38W 9D 6L in their last 53 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.27 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%, Al-Nassr 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 81% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 69% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 81% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Nassr defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-3 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67 xG and Al-Nassr 1.29 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.24 / defence 0.76 against Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 30%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%, Al-Nassr 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.94 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.