Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W, Al-Hazm 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG and Al-Hazm 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.324. Data: 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 0 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hazm 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 / Al-Hazm 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Hazm xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 41% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.92
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.74
1.29
Al-Hazm xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.29 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pre-Season
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 3-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG and Al-Hazm 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 34%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.