Abha 1-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Abha face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Abha welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Abha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Abha.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 57% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 67% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.31 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.992 / defence 1.066 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.208. Data: 30 Abha games / 30 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Abha 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Abha 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Abha 1.31 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.992 / def 1.066 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.047 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Abha 1 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.84
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Abha xG
Total xG
2.66
1.35
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Abha and 1.35 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Abha have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 10W 3D 17L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. Abha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 17W 8D 5L from 30 games, 1.97 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 4D 3L from 15 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.80 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Pre-Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 10W 3D 17L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 17W 8D 5L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Abha) and 40% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 53%; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Abha's recent matches and 27% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Abha's matches and 40% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Abha 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.31 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.