Al-Adalah 1-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Adalah at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Adalah face Al Baten.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to face Al-Adalah in Pro League (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Thursday 19 January 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Adalah have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al-Adalah's home record over their last 6 home games: 2W 0D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Al Baten (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Baten's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Al-Adalah, 0.20 for Al Baten — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 38% versus Al Baten 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Adalah 46% | Al Baten 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.46 xG and Al Baten 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.736 / defence 1.180 | Al Baten attack 0.799 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.170. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.46. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.439 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Adalah's projected output up. Al Baten's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Al-Adalah's last 13 games and Al Baten's last 43.
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 45% | Draw 26% | Al Baten 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 2.21 | Draw 3.83 | Al Baten 3.49. Al-Adalah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Adalah at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Adalah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Adalah 33% (last 6 home games) | Al Baten 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 January 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 45% | Draw 26% | Al Baten 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al-Adalah 1.46 / Al Baten 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.736 / def 1.180 | Al Baten attack 0.799 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Al-Adalah (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Baten xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al Baten FAQs
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al Baten kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Thursday 19 January 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al Baten?
Al-Adalah 1 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al Baten is a Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 45% chance of winning, Al Baten a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Adalah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al Baten will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Adalah vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Adalah's attack rating (0.74) and Al Baten's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.80x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Al-Adalah's last 13 games and Al Baten's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Adalah Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.83
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.56
1.10
Al Baten xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al Baten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.10 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Adalah have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 2W 2D 9L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Al Baten's form line: 0W 2D 11L from 13 games, 0.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Al-Adalah are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Baten.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Adalah have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 6 home games (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 1D 5L from their last 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Adalah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.62 scored and 2.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Adalah (Home) vs Al Baten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al Baten Form FAQs
What form are Al-Adalah and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 11L in their last 13 (0.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Adalah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Al-Adalah and Al Baten, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 27 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
2
Draws
0
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al Baten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al Baten?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Adalah have won 0, Al Baten have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al Baten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 May 2023: Al Baten 2-2 Al-Adalah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Adalah) and 33% (Al Baten) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Adalah) and 67% (Al Baten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Baten in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Al Baten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Adalah and Al Baten matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 33% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Adalah and Al Baten matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Adalah's matches and 67% of Al Baten's.
Do Al-Adalah and Al Baten matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 50% of Al Baten's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Adalah and Al Baten share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al-Adalah and Al Baten drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.46 xG and Al Baten 1.10 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Al Baten attack 0.80 / defence 1.44, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 45% | Draw 26% | Al Baten 29%, with Al-Adalah to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 46%, Al Baten 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Adalah arrived the stronger side — 0.62 PPG against 0.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.