Damac 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Damac welcome Al-Fateh to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Damac) versus 1.50 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Damac, 1 for Al-Fateh and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 55% versus Al-Fateh 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 43% | Al-Fateh 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.15 xG and Al-Fateh 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.758 / defence 0.924 | Al-Fateh attack 1.078 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.135. Damac's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Damac games / 42 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 35%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Al-Fateh 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Damac 1.15 / Al-Fateh 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.758 / def 0.924 | Al-Fateh attack 1.078 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Damac (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Fateh xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Damac 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fateh part of?
Damac vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Damac and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.76) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.37
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Damac xG
Total xG
2.28
1.13
Al-Fateh xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Damac and 1.13 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac's recent record stands at 16W 14D 12L from 42 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 19L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.48 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Damac have managed 8W 8D 4L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.52 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 14D 12L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fateh away?
Damac's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
6
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 55%, Al-Fateh 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Damac) and 45% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Damac's recent matches and 45% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Damac's recent games and 45% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.15 xG and Al-Fateh 1.13 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 35%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 43%, Al-Fateh 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.48 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.