Al-Adalah 0-2 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Abha at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Adalah vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Adalah welcome Abha to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 25 December 2022 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Adalah — last 9 games: 1W 1D 7L, averaging 0.44 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings (11%).
Al-Adalah's home record over their last 4 home games: 1W 0D 3L (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Abha have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Abha have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Abha's 1.30 PPG return is 0.86 points per game ahead of Al-Adalah's 0.44 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Al-Adalah trading profile (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Abha trading profile (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 44% versus Abha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Adalah 56% | Abha 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.00 xG and Abha 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.743 / defence 1.227 | Abha attack 1.058 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.144. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Al-Adalah's defence rating of 1.227 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Abha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Adalah's last 9 games and Abha's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 25% | Draw 26% | Abha 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 3.97 | Draw 3.77 | Abha 2.07. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Adalah 25% (last 4 home games) | Abha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 December 2022 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 25% | Draw 26% | Abha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Al-Adalah 1.00 / Abha 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.743 / def 1.227 | Abha attack 1.058 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Abha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Abha xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Abha FAQs
What time does Al-Adalah vs Abha kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Abha kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Abha?
Al-Adalah 0 - 2 Abha.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Abha part of?
Al-Adalah vs Abha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 25% chance of winning, Abha a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Adalah and Abha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Al-Adalah vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Adalah's attack at 0.74x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Adalah's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Adalah's last 9 games and Abha's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
25%
3.97
26%
3.77
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.48
1.49
Abha xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Adalah vs Abha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.49 for Abha, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Adalah's recent record stands at 1W 1D 7L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 4L across 9 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Abha by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Adalah have managed 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.22 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Abha
Blended
Al-Adalah (Home) vs Abha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Adalah
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Al-Adalah vs Abha Form FAQs
What form are Al-Adalah and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Abha have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Abha away?
Abha's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 0.75 PPG; Abha away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Adalah vs Abha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Abha?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Adalah have won 0, Abha have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Abha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2023: Abha 1-0 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Abha?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 25%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Adalah and 75% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 75% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Adalah vs Abha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Adalah and Abha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Adalah and Abha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Adalah's matches and 75% of Abha's.
Do Al-Adalah and Abha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 75% of Abha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Adalah 0-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 1.00 xG and Abha 1.49 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Adalah fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Abha attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 25% | Draw 26% | Abha 48%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 56%, Abha 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Abha's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Abha arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.