Abha 1-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Abha, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 49% versus Al-Ittihad FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 46% | Al-Ittihad FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.00 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.925 / defence 1.145 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.053 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.112. Data: 40 Abha games / 39 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 28% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Abha 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 28% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Abha 1.00 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.925 / def 1.145 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.053 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Abha 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Abha and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Abha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
28%
3.61
28%
3.56
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Abha xG
Total xG
2.34
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Abha and 1.34 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 9D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.21 PPG from 39 outings (26W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.95 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 13W 9D 17L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 26W 8D 5L in their last 39 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.58 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Abha 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Abha) and 53% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 32%; Abha have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Abha's games and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Abha's recent games and 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Abha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Abha 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.00 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 28% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 46%, Al-Ittihad FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.