Abha 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Abha face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 2.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Abha.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Abha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 50% and Al-Ittihad FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.79 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.594 / defence 1.042 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.176 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.502. Abha's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Abha games / 44 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 14% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Abha 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Abha 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 14% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Abha 0.79 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.594 / def 1.042 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.176 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al-Ittihad FC xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Abha 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 14% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Abha and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
14%
7.33
26%
3.86
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Abha xG
Total xG
2.63
1.84
Al-Ittihad FC xG
7.33
14%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
2%
46.16
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Abha and 1.84 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 10 games, going 0W 2D 8L for 0.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.10 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ittihad FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 games (0.20 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Abha 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Abha) and 75% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Abha have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Abha's games and 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Abha's recent games and 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Abha and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 0.79 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.84 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.59 / defence 1.04 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 14% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.