Lokomotiv 3-3 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lokomotiv at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow meet at RZD Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lokomotiv have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokomotiv's home record at RZD Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lokomotiv have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, CSKA Moscow in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lokomotiv lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lokomotiv half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
CSKA Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lokomotiv 64% and CSKA Moscow 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 60% | CSKA Moscow 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 1.36 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.065 / defence 0.962 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.125 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.194. Data: 52 Lokomotiv games / 52 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 37% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 34%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lokomotiv are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokomotiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lokomotiv 60% | CSKA Moscow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 37% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lokomotiv 1.36 / CSKA Moscow 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 1.065 / def 0.962 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.125 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
1.29
CSKA Moscow xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Lokomotiv 3 - 3 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 37% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Lokomotiv 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 3W.
What form are Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow in?
Lokomotiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lokomotiv's attack at 1.06x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.12x) against Lokomotiv's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.47
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
2.65
1.29
CSKA Moscow xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.29 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Lokomotiv have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 22W 15D 15L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 26W 16D 10L from 52 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Lokomotiv against 1.81 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lokomotiv have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 8W 10D 8L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lokomotiv are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.85 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 22W 15D 15L in their last 52 games (1.56 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 26W 16D 10L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Lokomotiv's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 1.58 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Lokomotiv or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokomotiv have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 5 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokomotiv have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lokomotiv
3
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Lokomotiv have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when CSKA Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Lokomotiv, 62% for CSKA Moscow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lokomotiv) and 54% (CSKA Moscow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokomotiv play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Lokomotiv's games and 62% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lokomotiv vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lokomotiv's matches and 54% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Lokomotiv have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokomotiv and CSKA Moscow finished level at 3-3 at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.36 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.29 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lokomotiv beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 37% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 34%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 60%, CSKA Moscow 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lokomotiv 1.56 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.