CSKA Moscow 4-1 Fakel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this CSKA Moscow vs Fakel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
CSKA Moscow and Fakel meet at VEB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's home record at VEB Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fakel have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for CSKA Moscow, 0 for Fakel and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fakel — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 61% versus Fakel 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 57% | Fakel 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.23 xG and Fakel 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.131 / defence 0.993 | Fakel attack 0.992 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.102. Data: 51 CSKA Moscow games / 51 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 35% | Fakel 29%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Fakel 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 70% | Fakel 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 35% | Fakel 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.23 / Fakel 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.131 / def 0.993 | Fakel attack 0.992 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fakel xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Fakel kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
CSKA Moscow 4 - 1 Fakel.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Fakel part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 36% chance of winning, Fakel a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Fakel?
Record (3 meetings): CSKA Moscow 2W | Draws 1 | Fakel 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Fakel in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Fakel (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Fakel's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.99x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
36%
2.78
35%
2.84
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.32
1.08
Fakel xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.08 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 16D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fakel sit at 1.20 PPG from 51 outings (14W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
CSKA Moscow's home form reads 17W 6D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fakel have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.06 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fakel in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Fakel in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 25W 16D 10L in their last 51 games (1.78 PPG), while Fakel have gone 14W 19D 18L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Fakel away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.28 PPG; Fakel away: 0.96 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fakel in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
2
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Fakel?
From 6 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Fakel have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Fakel 0-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Fakel?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 60%, Fakel 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (CSKA Moscow) and 36% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fakel in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 44% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 36% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Fakel tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Fakel in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fakel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Fakel 4-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.23 xG and Fakel 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Fakel attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 35% | Fakel 29%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 57%, Fakel 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fakel's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm. Fakel (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.