Krylia Sovetov 5-1 Lokomotiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokomotiv at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv meet at Solidarnost Samara Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's home record at Solidarnost Samara Arena: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lokomotiv's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lokomotiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lokomotiv arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lokomotiv, who have claimed 3 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Lokomotiv winning.
It is worth noting that Lokomotiv have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Lokomotiv — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 57% and Lokomotiv 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 57% | Lokomotiv 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.13 xG and Lokomotiv 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.829 / defence 1.166 | Lokomotiv attack 1.098 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.128. Data: 51 Krylia Sovetov games / 51 Lokomotiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 31% | Lokomotiv 42%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Lokomotiv 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lokomotiv as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokomotiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Lokomotiv 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 31% | Lokomotiv 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.13 / Lokomotiv 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.829 / def 1.166 | Lokomotiv attack 1.098 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Lokomotiv xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Krylia Sovetov 5 - 1 Lokomotiv.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 27% chance of winning, Lokomotiv a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
Record (7 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 4 | Lokomotiv 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Lokomotiv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.83x the league average against Lokomotiv's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lokomotiv's attack (1.10x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
27%
3.66
31%
3.25
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Lokomotiv xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
14%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.44 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 12D 23L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokomotiv's form line: 26W 15D 10L from 51 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Lokomotiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lokomotiv are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, Lokomotiv have gone 11W 7D 7L from 25 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lokomotiv are on 1.75 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Lokomotiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Lokomotiv have gone 26W 15D 10L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Lokomotiv away?
Lokomotiv's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.48 PPG; Lokomotiv away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 5-1 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lokomotiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
5
Draws
3
Lokomotiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Lokomotiv have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Lokomotiv.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv?
Lokomotiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, Lokomotiv 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Krylia Sovetov) and 56% (Lokomotiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Lokomotiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Lokomotiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 68% of Lokomotiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 56% of Lokomotiv's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Lokomotiv tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lokomotiv in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lokomotiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Lokomotiv 5-1 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.13 xG and Lokomotiv 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Lokomotiv attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 27% | Draw 31% | Lokomotiv 42%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 57%, Lokomotiv 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lokomotiv's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.