Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fakel at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Samara Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Samara Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fakel have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Krylia Sovetov, 0.70 for Fakel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Fakel and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 61% versus Fakel 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 64% | Fakel 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Fakel 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.805 / defence 1.262 | Fakel attack 0.850 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.381. Data: 33 Krylia Sovetov games / 33 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 29% | Fakel 42%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Fakel 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fakel at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fakel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Fakel 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 29% | Fakel 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.20 / Fakel 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.805 / def 1.262 | Fakel attack 0.850 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Fakel (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Fakel xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance of winning, Fakel a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
Record (4 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 1 | Fakel 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fakel (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (0.81) and Fakel's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.85x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
29%
3.45
29%
3.46
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.68
1.48
Fakel xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.48 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 8D 14L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fakel's form line: 7W 12D 14L from 33 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.00 for Fakel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
On the road, Fakel have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.70 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fakel in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
Fakel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Fakel in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Fakel have gone 7W 12D 14L in their last 33 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Fakel away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.62 PPG; Fakel away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Fakel in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
1
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
From 6 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Fakel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Fakel 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 56%, Fakel 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Krylia Sovetov) and 44% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Fakel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 44% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 44% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Fakel tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fakel in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fakel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Fakel 2-0 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Fakel 1.48 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fakel landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.81 / defence 1.26 against Fakel attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 29% | Draw 29% | Fakel 42%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 64%, Fakel 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fakel's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.24 PPG, Fakel 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.