Spartak Moscow 0-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Spartak Moscow welcome Akhmat to Lukoil Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lukoil Arena, Spartak Moscow have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lukoil Arena.
Akhmat — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 2.10 PPG, Akhmat 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Spartak Moscow, 1 for Akhmat and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Akhmat winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Akhmat trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 42% versus Akhmat 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 48% | Akhmat 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.34 xG and Akhmat 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.207 / defence 0.790 | Akhmat attack 0.823 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.356. Spartak Moscow's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Spartak Moscow games / 33 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 23%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Akhmat 4.35. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Spartak Moscow 40% | Akhmat 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.34 / Akhmat 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.207 / def 0.790 | Akhmat attack 0.823 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Akhmat xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow 0 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 46% chance of winning, Akhmat a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (5 meetings): Spartak Moscow 1W | Draws 3 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.19
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.23
0.88
Akhmat xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.88 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 16W 8D 9L from 33 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 16L across 33 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spartak Moscow by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 11W 3D 2L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Spartak Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spartak Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.03 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
Akhmat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 games (1.70 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 10W 7D 16L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.25 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Akhmat in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
5
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Akhmat have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Akhmat 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 44%, Akhmat 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spartak Moscow) and 38% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Akhmat in 31%; Akhmat in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 38% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Spartak Moscow's recent games and 38% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spartak Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spartak Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow and Akhmat finished level at 0-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.34 xG and Akhmat 0.88 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spartak Moscow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Akhmat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.21 / defence 0.79 against Akhmat attack 0.82 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 46% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 23%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 48%, Akhmat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akhmat's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.