Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 10 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Solidarnost Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Akhmat are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 2W, Akhmat 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 60% and Akhmat 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 56% | Akhmat 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Akhmat 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.966 / defence 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.912 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.216. Data: 57 Krylia Sovetov games / 57 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 42% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 27%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Akhmat 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Akhmat (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Akhmat 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 42% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.20 / Akhmat 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.966 / def 0.816 | Akhmat attack 0.912 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Akhmat xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 42% chance of winning, Akhmat a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Record (5 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 2W | Draws 0 | Akhmat 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Krylia Sovetov's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.91x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.29
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Akhmat xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.90 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 19W 15D 23L from 57 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 23L across 57 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.44 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 11W 11D 6L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 12W 4D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.42 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 24W 10D 23L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akhmat away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.57 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
5
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Akhmat have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 2-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 54%, Akhmat 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Krylia Sovetov) and 64% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 64% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 64% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Akhmat 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Akhmat outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Akhmat attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 42% | Draw 30% | Akhmat 27%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 56%, Akhmat 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.26 PPG, Akhmat 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.