Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host Krylia Sovetov at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's home record at Arena Khimki: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khimki at 1.20 PPG versus Krylia Sovetov's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khimki, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 56% versus Krylia Sovetov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 48% | Krylia Sovetov 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.880 / defence 1.040 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.929 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.054. Data: 23 Khimki games / 53 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Krylia Sovetov 4.55. Khimki hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 50% | Krylia Sovetov 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Khimki 1.56 / Krylia Sovetov 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.880 / def 1.040 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.929 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Khimki (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Krylia Sovetov xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Khimki 1 - 3 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 47% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Khimki and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (5 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 3 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in?
Khimki (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khimki's attack rating (0.88) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.28
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.58
1.02
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Khimki and 1.02 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khimki come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 8D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 1.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khimki's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khimki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.13 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Khimki's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.27 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
3
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 54%, Krylia Sovetov 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Khimki) and 46% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Khimki's recent matches and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Khimki's recent games and 46% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Khimki 1-3 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.56 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 47% | Draw 30% | Krylia Sovetov 22%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Krylia Sovetov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 48%, Krylia Sovetov 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 1.00 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.