Fakel 0-0 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Fakel plays host to Fakel versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fakel's home record at Stadion Fakel: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Krasnodar are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fakel lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fakel — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 6% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 34% versus FC Krasnodar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fakel 25% | FC Krasnodar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.94 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.704 / defence 0.880 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.917 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.464. Fakel's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Fakel games / 32 FC Krasnodar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fakel 26% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 38%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | FC Krasnodar 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Fakel 30% | FC Krasnodar 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 26% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Fakel 0.94 / FC Krasnodar 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.704 / def 0.880 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.917 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Krasnodar xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Fakel 0 - 0 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Fakel vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 26% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fakel and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
Record (4 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 3 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are Fakel and FC Krasnodar in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.70x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (0.92x) against Fakel's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
26%
3.86
36%
2.78
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.12
1.18
FC Krasnodar xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fakel and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Fakel and 1.18 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fakel come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 11D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (16W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fakel's home form reads 4W 7D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fakel are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; FC Krasnodar in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 16W 10D 6L in their last 32 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.19 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fakel or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 5-0 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Fakel
4
Draws
3
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
From 7 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fakel see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 25%, FC Krasnodar 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 6% for Fakel and 38% for FC Krasnodar.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Fakel's recent matches and 62% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 6% of Fakel's recent games and 38% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and FC Krasnodar finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.94 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.18 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fakel fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Krasnodar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.70 / defence 0.88 against FC Krasnodar attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 26% | Draw 36% | FC Krasnodar 38%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 25%, FC Krasnodar 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.