Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akhmat make the trip to Anzhi Arena to face Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 19 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 Premier League outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: D D L L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Akhmat are 1.00 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala in recent Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Akhmat — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | Akhmat 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dinamo Makhachkala 0% | Akhmat 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 0.63 xG and Akhmat 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.675 / defence 1.109 | Akhmat attack 0.759 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.288. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Akhmat's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 34 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 20% | Draw 35% | Akhmat 45%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Akhmat 2.22. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Dinamo Makhachkala's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 25% | Akhmat 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 20% | Draw 35% | Akhmat 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 0.63 / Akhmat 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.675 / def 1.109 | Akhmat attack 0.759 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Akhmat xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat?
Dinamo Makhachkala 1 - 0 Akhmat.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 20% chance of winning, Akhmat a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L. Akhmat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala's attack at 0.68x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.76x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.9%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
20%
5.02
35%
2.84
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
1.71
1.08
Akhmat xG
5.02
20%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 19.5 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.08 for Akhmat, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Dinamo Makhachkala have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akhmat's form line: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Dinamo Makhachkala against 0.75 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 0.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dinamo Makhachkala have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Akhmat in 25%.
Defensively: Akhmat in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
Akhmat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Akhmat in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 2, Akhmat have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Akhmat 3-2 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and Akhmat?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dinamo Makhachkala see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 25% (Akhmat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 25% for Akhmat.
On the defensive side: Akhmat in 50%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 75% of games; Akhmat in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 25% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 25% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Dinamo Makhachkala defy the odds to beat Akhmat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dinamo Makhachkala beat Akhmat 1-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 0.63 xG and Akhmat 1.08 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Akhmat landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Akhmat attack 0.76 / defence 0.70, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 20% | Draw 35% | Akhmat 45%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Dinamo Makhachkala win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 0%, Akhmat 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Akhmat's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.50 PPG, Akhmat 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.