Baltika 0-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostec Arena plays host to Baltika versus Zenit in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baltika's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baltika have posted 3W 2D 1L at Rostec Arena — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zenit (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zenit have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Zenit are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Baltika goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 46% versus Zenit 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 46% | Zenit 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.04 xG and Zenit 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.884 / defence 1.065 | Zenit attack 1.364 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.060. Zenit's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Baltika games / 43 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 26% | Zenit 49%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Zenit 2.04. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 50% | Zenit 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 26% | Draw 26% | Zenit 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Baltika 1.04 / Zenit 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.884 / def 1.065 | Zenit attack 1.364 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Zenit (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Zenit xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Zenit kick off?
Baltika vs Zenit kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Zenit?
Baltika 0 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Baltika vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Zenit part of?
Baltika vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 26% chance of winning, Zenit a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Baltika and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Zenit?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baltika and Zenit in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Zenit (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Baltika's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.36x) against Baltika's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
26%
3.90
26%
3.92
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.58
1.54
Zenit xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
18.17
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Baltika and 1.54 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baltika come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 2D 8L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Baltika — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Baltika's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baltika are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Zenit in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Zenit have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Zenit away?
Baltika's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.83 PPG; Zenit away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Baltika or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Zenit in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Zenit?
From 4 meetings on record, Baltika have won 0, Zenit have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Zenit 1-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 50%, Zenit 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Baltika) and 50% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zenit in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Baltika's games and 67% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baltika vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Zenit tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zenit in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baltika.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Baltika 0-2 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.04 xG and Zenit 1.54 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baltika fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Zenit attack 1.36 / defence 0.78, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 26% | Draw 26% | Zenit 49%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 46%, Zenit 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.