Akhmat 1-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Akhmat face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Akhmat Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 3W 4D 3L at Akhmat Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Akhmat's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 52% versus CSKA Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 45% | CSKA Moscow 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 0.87 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.895 / defence 0.958 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.183 / defence 0.656. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.082. CSKA Moscow's defence strength of 0.656 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Akhmat games / 56 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 23% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 42%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | CSKA Moscow 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 60% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 23% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Akhmat 0.87 / CSKA Moscow 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.895 / def 0.958 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.183 / def 0.656 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.23
CSKA Moscow xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Akhmat 1 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 23% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akhmat and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
Record (7 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 5W.
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in?
Akhmat (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.90x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.18x) against Akhmat's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
23%
4.27
35%
2.85
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.10
1.23
CSKA Moscow xG
4.27
23%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.58
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.23 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 14W 16D 26L from 56 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 11L across 56 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 8W 9D 11L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 13W 10D 5L across 28 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.73 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 14W 16D 26L in their last 56 games (1.04 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 27W 18D 11L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.18 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Akhmat or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Akhmat
1
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 61%, CSKA Moscow 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 54% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Akhmat's games and 61% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Akhmat's recent games and 54% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Akhmat and CSKA Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 0.87 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 0.66, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 23% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 42%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 45%, CSKA Moscow 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.