Vizela 0-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Famalicao meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Famalicao have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Famalicao arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vizela register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Famalicao in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 39% versus Famalicao 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | Famalicao 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.16 xG and Famalicao 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.841 / defence 1.199 | Famalicao attack 0.868 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.247. Data: 44 Vizela games / 44 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 33% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 40%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vizela 70% | Famalicao 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 33% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Vizela 1.16 / Famalicao 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.841 / def 1.199 | Famalicao attack 0.868 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Famalicao xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Famalicao kick off?
Vizela vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Famalicao?
Vizela 0 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Vizela vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Famalicao part of?
Vizela vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 33% chance of winning, Famalicao a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Vizela and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Famalicao?
Record (4 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 3 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Vizela and Famalicao in?
Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.84x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.87x) against Vizela's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.67
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.45
1.30
Famalicao xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vizela and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vizela and 1.30 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 10D 21L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 17W 8D 19L from 44 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Vizela against 1.34 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.14 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 17W 8D 19L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Famalicao away?
Vizela's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.05 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Vizela or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Famalicao in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
4
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Famalicao?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Famalicao have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Famalicao 3-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 41%, Famalicao 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 50% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 41% of games; Famalicao in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Vizela's recent matches and 54% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vizela's recent games and 50% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Famalicao tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vizela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 11, as Vizela and Famalicao drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.16 xG and Famalicao 1.30 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vizela fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Famalicao landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Famalicao attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 33% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 40%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Famalicao 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.11 PPG, Famalicao 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.