Moreirense 0-1 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Porto at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs FC Porto encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host FC Porto at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Moreirense's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Porto — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, FC Porto have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Porto — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Moreirense register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Porto in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Moreirense have won 0, FC Porto 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–5 with FC Porto winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Moreirense trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Porto trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 54% versus FC Porto 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 50% | FC Porto 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.09 xG and FC Porto 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.047 / defence 1.212 | FC Porto attack 1.323 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.377. FC Porto have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Moreirense games / 22 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 17% | Draw 21% | FC Porto 62%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | FC Porto 1.61. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Porto as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 70% | FC Porto 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 17% | Draw 21% | FC Porto 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Moreirense 1.09 / FC Porto 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.047 / def 1.212 | FC Porto attack 1.323 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
2.21
FC Porto xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs FC Porto kick off?
Moreirense vs FC Porto kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs FC Porto?
Moreirense 0 - 1 FC Porto.
Where is Moreirense vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs FC Porto part of?
Moreirense vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 17% chance of winning, FC Porto a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Moreirense and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and FC Porto?
Record (1 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 0 | FC Porto 1W.
What form are Moreirense and FC Porto in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. FC Porto (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Moreirense's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Porto's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, FC Porto's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
17%
5.80
21%
4.83
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Moreirense xG
Total xG
3.30
2.21
FC Porto xG
5.80
17%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
11%
9.10
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
2%
52.80
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Moreirense and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Moreirense and 2.21 for FC Porto, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs FC Porto?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Moreirense have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 4W 7D 11L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Porto's form line: 19W 3D 0L from 22 games, 2.73 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 1.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Moreirense.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Moreirense have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, FC Porto have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Moreirense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 2.59 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Porto in 64%.
Defensively: FC Porto in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
FC Porto
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 19W 3D 0L in their last 22 (2.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Moreirense or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, FC Porto in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Moreirense and FC Porto runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Porto go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when FC Porto won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Moreirense's record when hosting FC Porto specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Moreirense
0
Draws
8
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and FC Porto?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, FC Porto have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when FC Porto 3-0 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Moreirense at 70%, FC Porto at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Moreirense and 70% for FC Porto. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play FC Porto?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Moreirense's games and 60% of FC Porto's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Moreirense's matches and 70% of FC Porto's.
Do Moreirense and FC Porto tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Moreirense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Moreirense 0-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.09 xG and FC Porto 2.21 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Porto landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against FC Porto attack 1.32 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 17% | Draw 21% | FC Porto 62%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 50%, FC Porto 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Porto's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.73 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.