Maritimo vs Arouca – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's home record at : 1W 1D 3L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Arouca have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Arouca are 0.90 PPG clear of Maritimo in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Maritimo, 2 for Arouca and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 60% versus Arouca 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 70% | Arouca 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.81 xG and Arouca 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.772 / defence 1.202 | Arouca attack 0.880 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.315. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Maritimo games / 44 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 22% | Draw 28% | Arouca 51%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Arouca 1.96. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | Arouca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 22% | Draw 28% | Arouca 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Maritimo 0.81 / Arouca 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.772 / def 1.202 | Arouca attack 0.880 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Arouca (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Arouca xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Arouca kick off?
Maritimo vs Arouca is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is Maritimo vs Arouca part of?
Maritimo vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 22% chance of winning, Arouca a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Maritimo and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
Record (5 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 2 | Arouca 2W.
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.77x the league average against Arouca's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.88x) against Maritimo's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
22%
4.60
28%
3.63
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.20
1.39
Arouca xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
18.47
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.39 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 3L across 10 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arouca by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arouca's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Arouca in 30%.
Defensively: Arouca in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Arouca have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Arouca away?
Arouca's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.80 PPG; Arouca away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Arouca in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Arouca have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Maritimo
2
Draws
2
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
From 5 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Arouca have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Maritimo) and 20% (Arouca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Maritimo) and 20% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Arouca in 40%; Maritimo have failed to score in 40% of games; Arouca in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Maritimo's recent matches and 20% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Maritimo's recent games and 20% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Arouca tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Arouca in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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