Vitória SC 0-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Vitória SC welcome Benfica to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vitória SC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Vitória SC have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Vitória SC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benfica — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vitória SC, 2 for Benfica and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitória SC trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Benfica trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 54% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 51% | Benfica 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 0.84 xG and Benfica 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 0.940 / defence 0.828 | Benfica attack 1.256 / defence 0.656. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.103. Benfica's defence strength of 0.656 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Vitória SC games / 41 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 27% | Draw 30% | Benfica 43%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Benfica 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vitória SC 40% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 27% | Draw 30% | Benfica 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Vitória SC 0.84 / Benfica 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 0.940 / def 0.828 | Benfica attack 1.256 / def 0.656 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Benfica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Benfica xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Benfica kick off?
Vitória SC vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Vitória SC 0 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Vitória SC vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Benfica part of?
Vitória SC vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 27% chance of winning, Benfica a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vitória SC and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Record (2 meetings): Vitória SC 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Benfica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.29
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
1.99
1.15
Benfica xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.7 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.15 for Benfica, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitória SC's recent record stands at 16W 10D 15L from 41 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vitória SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 30W 5D 6L across 41 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitória SC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitória SC have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 16W 2D 2L across 20 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.37 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Benfica have gone 30W 5D 6L in their last 41 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 1.80 PPG; Benfica away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Benfica in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitória SC's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Vitória SC
2
Draws
8
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 0, Benfica have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Benfica 3-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 55%, Benfica 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Vitória SC) and 55% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 45% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Vitória SC's matches and 55% of Benfica's.
Do Vitória SC and Benfica tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Benfica in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitória SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 8, as Vitória SC and Benfica drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 0.84 xG and Benfica 1.15 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitória SC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Benfica landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Benfica attack 1.26 / defence 0.66, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 27% | Draw 30% | Benfica 43%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 51%, Benfica 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.