GIL Vicente 2-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arouca (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as GIL Vicente face Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:15 UK time.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIL Vicente's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Arouca (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arouca have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Arouca arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Arouca have the stronger record — 3 wins to GIL Vicente's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended GIL Vicente 0–3 Arouca — a Arouca win.
Arouca have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 48% versus Arouca 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 47% | Arouca 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.91 xG and Arouca 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.765 / defence 1.081 | Arouca attack 1.245 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.284. GIL Vicente's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Arouca have an above-average attack rating of 1.245, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 64 games and Arouca's last 64.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 24% | Arouca 57%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 5.11 | Draw 4.19 | Arouca 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Arouca (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 21:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 24% | Arouca 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG GIL Vicente 0.91 / Arouca 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.765 / def 1.081 | Arouca attack 1.245 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Arouca (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Arouca xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Arouca FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Arouca kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca kicked off at 21:15 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente 2 - 2 Arouca.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Arouca part of?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 20% chance of winning, Arouca a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIL Vicente and Arouca will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will GIL Vicente vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.77) and Arouca's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (1.25x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 64 games and Arouca's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
20%
5.11
24%
4.19
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.64
1.73
Arouca xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
28.81
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Arouca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.73 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 18W 14D 32L from 64 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 22L across 64 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arouca by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 11W 12D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across their last 32 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.36 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Arouca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Arouca
Current Season
❓ GIL Vicente vs Arouca Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Arouca in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 18W 14D 32L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Arouca have gone 28W 14D 22L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Arouca away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.41 PPG; Arouca away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won Arouca 3-0 GIL Vicente on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 4D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
6
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Arouca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 0, Arouca have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Arouca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Arouca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for GIL Vicente and 38% for Arouca.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 31% of games; Arouca in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Arouca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Arouca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 50% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Arouca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 38% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Arouca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 62% of Arouca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Arouca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Arouca finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.91 xG and Arouca 1.73 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Arouca attack 1.25 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 24% | Arouca 57%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 47%, Arouca 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arouca arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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