Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Raków Częstochowa away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Zaglebie Lubin, 1.40 for Raków Częstochowa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Raków Częstochowa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 3 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–5 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 47% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Raków Częstochowa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.749 / defence 1.034 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.946 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.163. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Zaglebie Lubin games / 64 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | Raków Częstochowa 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.95 / Raków Częstochowa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.749 / def 1.034 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.946 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 29% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (5 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.95x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
29%
3.51
33%
3.00
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.14 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 17D 25L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.94 PPG from 64 outings (36W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 9W 10D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.50 points per game from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.78 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 22W 17D 25L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 36W 16D 12L in their last 64 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.16 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Raków Częstochowa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 31%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 59% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Raków Częstochowa 2-0 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 33% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Raków Częstochowa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.