Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.50 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Pogon Szczecin, with 2 draws in between.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Pogon Szczecin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 46% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.005 / defence 0.803 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.182 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.139. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Raków Częstochowa games / 65 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.21 / Pogon Szczecin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.005 / def 0.803 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.182 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 37% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.08 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 36W 16D 13L from 65 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 18L across 65 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.91 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 23W 7D 2L from 32 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 14W 9D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.75 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 36W 16D 13L in their last 65 games (1.91 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 32W 15D 18L in their last 65 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.38 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 38%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Raków Częstochowa) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 0.79, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 46%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.91 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.