Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.50 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Legia Warszawa have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Zaglebie Lubin's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 51% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Legia Warszawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.920 / defence 0.963 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.146 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.199. Data: 51 Zaglebie Lubin games / 51 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 41% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 34%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Legia Warszawa 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 41% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.48 / Legia Warszawa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.920 / def 0.963 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.146 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Legia Warszawa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 41% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (7 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 7W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.15x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.88
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.80
1.32
Legia Warszawa xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.32 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 12D 21L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 24W 16D 11L from 51 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zaglebie Lubin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 10W 9D 6L from 25 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.65 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 24W 16D 11L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.56 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 4-0 on 15 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Legia Warszawa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 56% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.48 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 41% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.