Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 18 as Wieczysta Kraków welcome Radomiak Radom to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wieczysta Kraków — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Wieczysta Kraków) versus 0.50 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wieczysta Kraków, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 69% and Radomiak Radom 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wieczysta Kraków 69% | Radomiak Radom 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.93 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.881 / defence 1.194 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.890 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Wieczysta Kraków's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Wieczysta Kraków games / 46 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 3.85. Wieczysta Kraków hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wieczysta Kraków at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 80% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.93 / Radomiak Radom 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.881 / def 1.194 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.890 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Wieczysta Kraków (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Radomiak Radom xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 48% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wieczysta Kraków the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wieczysta Kraków's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wieczysta Kraków Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.81
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
3.33
1.40
Radomiak Radom xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
4%
26.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.40 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wieczysta Kraków's recent record stands at 2W 2D 9L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 9L across 13 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wieczysta Kraków on 0.62 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wieczysta Kraków have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wieczysta Kraków come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.08 scored and 2.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Wieczysta Kraków's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 0.80 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 80%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Wieczysta Kraków and 60% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 60% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.