Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 38%, yet in-form Zaglebie Lubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at : 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Widzew Łódź's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Widzew Łódź, 4 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.38 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.793 / defence 0.955 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.964 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Widzew Łódź games / 46 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 32% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 32% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.38 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.793 / def 0.955 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.964 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Zaglebie Lubin xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 38% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 3W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 4W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.79) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.15
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.59
1.21
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.21 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 13W 14D 20L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 15L across 47 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.13 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 8W 9D 6L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.30 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.43 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 61%, Zaglebie Lubin 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 52% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Widzew Łódź's games and 61% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.