Raków Częstochowa 4-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Raków this season: 2W 3D 0L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 0.80 PPG lead over Zaglebie Lubin (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 57% versus Zaglebie Lubin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 71% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.94 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.208 / defence 1.169 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.765 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.217. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Raków Częstochowa games / 14 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.94 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.208 / def 1.169 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.765 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Zaglebie Lubin xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa 4 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 57% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.21) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.77x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.49
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.03
1.09
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
33.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.09 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 7W 5D 2L from 14 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 7L across 14 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.07 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.80 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 60%, Zaglebie Lubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Raków Częstochowa and 40% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Lubin 4-0 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.94 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.21 / defence 1.17 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 57% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 71%, Zaglebie Lubin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.