Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica meet at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
Miedz Legnica (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica's away record: 0W 1D 4L from 5 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Raków Częstochowa. A 1.50 PPG lead over Miedz Legnica (2.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Miedz Legnica half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 30% versus Miedz Legnica 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Raków Częstochowa 60% | Miedz Legnica 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 2.67 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.416 / defence 0.775 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.984 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.162. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Miedz Legnica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Raków Częstochowa games / 10 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 75% | Draw 15% | Miedz Legnica 10%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Miedz Legnica 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Miedz Legnica 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 75% | Draw 15% | Miedz Legnica 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 55% | xG Raków Częstochowa 2.67 / Miedz Legnica 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.416 / def 0.775 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.984 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Miedz Legnica xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 75% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.42) and Miedz Legnica's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Miedz Legnica's attack (0.98x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 45/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.74
10%
10.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.56
0.89
Miedz Legnica xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.74
15%
Draw
10.01
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
7%
14.43
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
144.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.89 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Miedz Legnica's form line: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games, 0.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Miedz Legnica have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.10 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Miedz Legnica in 80%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Miedz Legnica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.60 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Raków Częstochowa, 100% for Miedz Legnica — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Raków Częstochowa and 80% for Miedz Legnica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Miedz Legnica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 100% of Miedz Legnica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 80% of Miedz Legnica's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Miedz Legnica 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Miedz Legnica 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 2.67 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.89 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Miedz Legnica landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.42 / defence 0.78 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.98 / defence 1.40, drawn from 45/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 75% | Draw 15% | Miedz Legnica 10%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 60%, Miedz Legnica 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.