Radomiak Radom 1-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GKS Katowice make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadion Radomiaka — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GKS Katowice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, GKS Katowice have posted 3W 1D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Radomiak Radom, 1.40 for GKS Katowice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Radomiak Radom 1W, GKS Katowice 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 59% versus GKS Katowice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | GKS Katowice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / defence 1.099 | GKS Katowice attack 1.181 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.229. GKS Katowice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Radomiak Radom games / 17 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | GKS Katowice 3.03. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 60% | GKS Katowice 38%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.88 / GKS Katowice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.043 / def 1.099 | GKS Katowice attack 1.181 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | GKS Katowice 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. GKS Katowice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.04x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (1.18x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.47
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.59 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 1D 11L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.29 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.53 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or GKS Katowice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.25 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GKS Katowice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
From 5 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, GKS Katowice 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Radomiak Radom and 62% for GKS Katowice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 38% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 62% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.88 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against GKS Katowice attack 1.18 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 33%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, GKS Katowice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 0.94 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.