Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice host Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Puszcza Niepołomice at 1.10 PPG versus Zaglebie Lubin's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Zaglebie Lubin 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 36% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.47 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.992 / defence 1.056 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.832 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.098. Data: 53 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 53 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 48% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.17. Puszcza Niepołomice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 48% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.47 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.992 / def 1.056 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.832 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 48% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.63
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.44
0.96
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0.96 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 20D 20L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.25 PPG from 53 outings (18W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.11 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 10W 12D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 13W 20D 20L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.62 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 65%, Zaglebie Lubin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 42% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 46% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 42% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.47 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 48% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 36%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.11 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.