Piast Gliwice 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Piast Gliwice welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.10 (Cracovia Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Cracovia Krakow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 30% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.26 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.965 / defence 0.978 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.809 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.251. Data: 54 Piast Gliwice games / 55 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 41% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 41% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.26 / Cracovia Krakow 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.965 / def 0.978 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.809 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cracovia Krakow xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 41% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.96) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.19
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.99 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 20D 16L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 16W 20D 18L from 54 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.37 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 10D 11L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 20D 16L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 20D 18L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.35 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Piast Gliwice) and 31% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 35% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 31% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.26 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 41% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 28%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 30%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.37 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.