Pogon Szczecin 4-2 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus ŁKS Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ŁKS Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 9L across 9 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.50 PPG lead over ŁKS Łódź (1.80 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with ŁKS Łódź winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 45% versus ŁKS Łódź 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | ŁKS Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.31 xG and ŁKS Łódź 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.249 / defence 1.218 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.731 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.239. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Pogon Szczecin games / 20 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 16%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | ŁKS Łódź 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | ŁKS Łódź 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.31 / ŁKS Łódź 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.249 / def 1.218 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.731 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
ŁKS Łódź xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 2 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 63% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | ŁKS Łódź 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.25x the league average against ŁKS Łódź's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.73x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 55/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.77
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.41
1.10
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
10%
10.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
2%
64.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.10 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 10W 3D 7L from 20 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ŁKS Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 14L across 20 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 3W 2D 4L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.65 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
ŁKS Łódź's away record stands at 0W 0D 9L across 9 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.70 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 10W 3D 7L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 14L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.22 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or ŁKS Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, ŁKS Łódź in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
1
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2024, when Pogon Szczecin 4-2 ŁKS Łódź.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 67%, ŁKS Łódź 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pogon Szczecin and 67% for ŁKS Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play ŁKS Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 44% of ŁKS Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 67% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat ŁKS Łódź 4-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.31 xG and ŁKS Łódź 1.10 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ŁKS Łódź outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.25 / defence 1.22 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 55/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 21% | ŁKS Łódź 16%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, ŁKS Łódź 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.