Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Puszcza Niepołomice at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 1.10 (Puszcza Niepołomice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 62% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 48% | Puszcza Niepołomice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.94 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.695 / defence 1.080 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.711 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.118. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Lechia Gdansk games / 55 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 34% | Puszcza Niepołomice 31%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Puszcza Niepołomice's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Puszcza Niepołomice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 34% | Puszcza Niepołomice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.94 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.695 / def 1.080 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.711 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 35% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.69) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
35%
2.82
34%
2.98
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
1.80
0.86
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.86 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 6D 10L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 4W 7D 10L from 21 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.00 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 0.90 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.10 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 2 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lechia Gdansk 40% BTTS, Puszcza Niepołomice 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Lechia Gdansk and 10% for Puszcza Niepołomice.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 30% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 30% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 10% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Puszcza Niepołomice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Lechia Gdansk 0-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.94 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.86 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.69 / defence 1.08 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 34% | Puszcza Niepołomice 31%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Puszcza Niepołomice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.00 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.