Cracovia Krakow 6-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Motor Lublin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Cracovia Krakow's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Motor Lublin's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 75% versus Motor Lublin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 58% | Motor Lublin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.55 xG and Motor Lublin 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.987 / defence 1.173 | Motor Lublin attack 0.950 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.176. Data: 46 Cracovia Krakow games / 12 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 25% | Motor Lublin 32%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Motor Lublin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Motor Lublin 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 25% | Motor Lublin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.55 / Motor Lublin 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.987 / def 1.173 | Motor Lublin attack 0.950 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Motor Lublin xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Cracovia Krakow 6 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.95x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.04
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.86
1.31
Motor Lublin xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.31 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.92 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Motor Lublin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.40 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-2 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Motor Lublin 3-3 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 80%, Motor Lublin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cracovia Krakow) and 40% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin in 40%; Motor Lublin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 40% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 40% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Motor Lublin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Motor Lublin 6-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.55 xG and Motor Lublin 1.31 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Motor Lublin attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 25% | Motor Lublin 32%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Motor Lublin 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.