Cracovia Krakow 2-2 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Lechia Gdansk to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.60 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Lechia Gdansk 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 75% and Lechia Gdansk 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 58% | Lechia Gdansk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.81 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.086 / defence 0.941 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.048 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.285. Data: 36 Cracovia Krakow games / 36 Lechia Gdansk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Lechia Gdansk 3.70. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.81 / Lechia Gdansk 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.086 / def 0.941 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.048 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Lechia Gdansk xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 2 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 50% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 3W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.09) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.34
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.08
1.27
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
22.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.27 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 16W 9D 11L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 10W 7D 19L from 36 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cracovia Krakow are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.33 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lechia Gdansk in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 10W 7D 19L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.33 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 78%, Lechia Gdansk at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Cracovia Krakow and 67% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 78% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 67% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.81 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.27 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Lechia Gdansk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.