Viking 3-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Viking welcome Sandefjord to SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Viking have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Viking's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandefjord stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Viking) versus 1.20 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Viking's games and 80% of Sandefjord's (from Viking's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Viking, 1 for Sandefjord and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Viking 3–0 Sandefjord — a Viking win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sandefjord trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 64% and Sandefjord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 61% | Sandefjord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.00 xG and Sandefjord 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.269 / defence 1.099 | Sandefjord attack 0.857 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.229. Viking carry an above-average attack rating of 1.269 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Viking's last 56 games and Sandefjord's last 56.
Result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 22%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.76 | Draw 4.64 | Sandefjord 4.61. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 60% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Viking 2.00 / Sandefjord 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.269 / def 1.099 | Sandefjord attack 0.857 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Viking (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sandefjord xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Viking vs Sandefjord kick off?
Viking vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Viking 3 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Viking vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sandefjord part of?
Viking vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 57% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.27) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 56 games and Sandefjord's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.64
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Viking xG
Total xG
3.15
1.16
Sandefjord xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
3%
33.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Viking and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Viking and 1.16 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 56 games, going 31W 12D 13L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.05 PPG from 56 outings (15W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 18W 6D 4L across their last 28 home games, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 28 away games (3W 7D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.46 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
Viking (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Viking vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 31W 12D 13L in their last 56 games (1.88 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sandefjord away?
Viking's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.14 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won Sandefjord 0-3 Viking.
Viking's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Viking
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 7, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Sandefjord 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sandefjord?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 71%, Sandefjord at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Viking) and 61% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Viking's games and 64% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Viking's matches and 61% of Sandefjord's.
Do Viking and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Viking's recent matches and 64% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Sandefjord 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sandefjord 3-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.00 xG and Sandefjord 1.16 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.27 / defence 1.10 against Sandefjord attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 22%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 61%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.