Sandefjord 2-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host KFUM Oslo at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KFUM Oslo — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.30 (KFUM Oslo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, KFUM Oslo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 0 for KFUM Oslo and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 68% and KFUM Oslo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 64% | KFUM Oslo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.37 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.002 / defence 1.129 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.954 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Data: 55 Sandefjord games / 25 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 36%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | KFUM Oslo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | KFUM Oslo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.37 / KFUM Oslo 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.002 / def 1.129 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.954 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.32
KFUM Oslo xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord 2 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.87
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.70
1.32
KFUM Oslo xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.32 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 7D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (8W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.00 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 5W 2D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.75 points per game from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.20 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 10D 7L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.42 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 7 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sandefjord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sandefjord's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2026, when KFUM Oslo 1-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 67%, KFUM Oslo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sandefjord and 50% for KFUM Oslo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sandefjord's games and 58% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sandefjord's matches and 50% of KFUM Oslo's.
Do Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out KFUM Oslo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.37 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.32 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 36%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, KFUM Oslo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.