Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 49%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brann travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brann stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 3, Brann 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2025, ended Stromsgodset 1–2 Brann — a Brann win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brann in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 43% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 37% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.66 xG and Brann 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.947 / defence 1.011 | Brann attack 0.971 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 33 games and Brann's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 24% | Brann 27%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.04 | Draw 4.12 | Brann 3.75. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 50% (last 10 home games) | Brann 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Stromsgodset 33 games, Brann 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 24% | Brann 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.66 / Brann 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.947 / def 1.011 | Brann attack 0.971 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Brann xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Brann FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Brann kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Stromsgodset 1 - 2 Brann.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Brann part of?
Stromsgodset vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 49% chance of winning, Brann a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stromsgodset and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.95) and Brann's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 33 games and Brann's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.12
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.83
1.16
Brann xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.16 for Brann, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 11D 26L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 36W 12D 12L from 60 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Brann have gone 15W 7D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Stromsgodset vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Brann have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.67 PPG; Brann away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Brann in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won Brann 3-0 Stromsgodset.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Brann specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
5
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 3, Brann have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 47%, Brann 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Stromsgodset) and 57% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Brann matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 57% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stromsgodset and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 57% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 87% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.66 xG and Brann 1.16 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Brann attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 24% | Brann 27%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 37%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.