Molde 2-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Molde face Bodo/Glimt.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Molde and Bodo/Glimt meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 April 2025 at 19:15 UK time.

Current Form

Molde's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Molde's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Molde against 1.80 for Bodo/Glimt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Molde's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — Molde have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Molde, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Molde 3–3 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Molde half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 70% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.26 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 0.961 / defence 1.067 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.973 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.338. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Molde's projected output down. Data: built from Molde's last 32 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Molde 34% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 40%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.93 | Draw 3.84 | Bodo/Glimt 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Molde's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Molde 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Molde 32 games, Bodo/Glimt 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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